Canadas premierminister Mark Carney indfriede sit løfte om at indføre gengældende tariffer mod USA på tirsdag. Til at spejle de amerikanske afgifter, der trådte i kraft på lørdag efter en uge med tense forhandlinger, vil importskattene på amerikanske eksportvarer belaste varer til en værdi af cirka 20 milliarder dollars med tariffer på op til 50 procent.
“Canada vil matche de nye amerikanske tariffer dollar for dollar,” postede Carney på X tirsdag formiddag, og tilføjede, at landet vil fordoble investeringerne i canadiske arbejdere og virksomheder, mens det fokuserer mere på indenlandsk industri og andre eksportmarkeder.
Blandt de beklædningsgenstande, som er omfattet af handelsforanstaltningen, er kvinders og pigers jakkesæt i syntetiske fibre, kjoler, nederdele, bukser og andre produkter; bomuld-T-shirts, jerseys, pullovere, cardigans; jerseys, pullovere, cardigans og veste i kunstige fibre; syntetiske handsker og vanter; herre-, dame-, pigers- og drenges overfrakker, anorakker, regnfrakker og andet overtøj, og herre- og drengejakkes og blazer i naturlige og syntetiske fibre.
“Kalde gengældshandlingenes handelsforanstaltninger som ‘absurde’, sagde Bob Kirke, administrerende direktør for Canadian Apparel Federation, at han tror afgifterne har potentiale til at skade både producent- og markeder for tøjprodukter. “Der vil ikke være canadiske jakkesæt i USA og ingen amerikanske jakkesæt i Canada,” sagde han.
Store canadiske producenter som Peerless Clothing og Ballin har andre fabrikker klar uden for Canada, så de kan fortsætte produktionen i udlandet, hvis det er nødvendigt, hvilket trækker job væk fra det canadiske marked, hvis efterspørgslen ændrer sig.
“Peerless producerer stadig en del i Canada, men kan fremstille stort set alle deres jakkesæt, de ønsker, i hvilket som helst land i verden,” sagde han og tilføjede, at han ikke havde talt direkte med mærkerne om deres planer.
Mange af dem er sandsynligvis kun ved at begynde at gennemgå de potentielle konsekvenser. Stephen Granovsky, administrerende direktør for Samuelsohn, en herre-skrædder, sagde, at han stadig var „arbejder videre gennem” kompleksiteten i spørgsmålet.
Kirke sagde, at han håbede, at de to sider kunne vende tilbage til forhandlingerne og nå til enighed før den 8. september, hvor Canadas tariffer forventes at træde i kraft. Han opfordrede producenter på begge sider af grænsen til at tale højt og tydeligt gøre deres misnøje kendt. “Det er stadig ikke for sent at vende kurs,” sagde han.
Josh Teitelbaum, handels- og policy-ekspert og seniorrådgiver hos Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, mener, at en hurtig løsning vil være usandsynlig, givet de politiske manøvrer i USA og Canada.
“I think it’s going to be at least until October, November before the parties are going to come together and try to talk this out again,” he said, citing Canada’s upcoming provincial elections, which begin later this month and continue into the fall, as well as the U.S. midterm elections in November.
“The rhetoric after the collapse of the deal has been pretty hot from both sides, and they’ve got to go through the five stages of grief here a little bit,” he added. “There’s the interpersonal disappointment that gets expressed, but there’s also the political realities that are probably why the deal fell apart in the first place.”
In Teitelbaum’s estimation, the deal on the table last week would have likely been a difficult sell for Canadian officials. Carney, the leader of the Liberal Party, has been urged not to bend to U.S. demands and has engendered support on both sides of the political aisle for standing firm against the provocations of President Donald Trump.
Still, Teitelbaum said he believes it’s unlikely that the duties, levied under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, will remain in effect long-term. “The incentive for the president theoretically is to cut a deal before the November midterms so that he can show that he’s addressing concerns about higher prices,” he said.
The trade lawyer also pointed to Trump’s latest threat of 50 percent sectoral tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts as “leverage” rather than a bona fide threat — a move that will prod leaders back to the negotiating table. “He doesn’t want them to go in effect until Jan. 1, four months away,” he said of the duties. “That’s an eternity when it comes to negotiating with this president.”
When it comes to the near-term impacts of the tariffs on the apparel industry, Teitelbaum said effects should be “fairly minor — but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some acute pain for some unlucky brands.”
Canada is a small supplier of apparel to the U.S., accounting for less than half of 1 percent of all apparel that the U.S. imported last year. “But, if you source men’s or boys’ wool suits and blazers from Canada, for example, this will be a problem for you. Those suits, which account for about one-third of apparel imports subject to this tariff, are one of the biggest targets,” Teitelbaum said. The U.S. imported nearly $100 million in men’s or boys’ Canadian wool suits or blazers last year and they now face a 50 percent tariff.
Of greater concern are the long-term implications for the relationship between the two countries as neighbors and economic allies, he believes. “I think it’s fair to say that this moment represents likely the beginning of a new era in U.S.-Canadian relations,” Teitelbaum added.
Those relations “are a lot rockier than they’ve been in the past — that’s kind of been a theme of the Trump administration for a while now — but I think this takes us into a slightly different chapter than where we’ve been before,” echoed Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association.
Lamar pointed to the use of a new — and heretofore unused — tariff authority, Section 338, as evidence that the administration is also entering new territory when it comes to trade policy.
“There is no exemption for [U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement]-qualifying goods,” he said, “and that casts into doubt the sanctity of free trade agreements.”
“These are partnerships that are supposed to be long-term and foundational; you could make long-term investments and really create a home around supply chain dynamics,” he added. “If these tariffs are reaching into those supply chains, that sends a shock throughout everything.”
Canada and the U.S. have a symbiotic relationship when it comes to the construction of apparel products, trading inputs and fabrics over the border as finished garments come to life, often touched by many hands.
Tøjets værdikæde var naturligvis ikke målet for handelsforanstaltningen. “Ingen siger, ‘vi skal adressere dette problem i henhold til branchen i Canada, derfor går vi efter disse produkter.’ De taler om andre spørgsmål, og vi er ofrene i kollaterale skader; de utilsigtede ofre,” sagde Lamar.
“There are very specific supply chain outcomes that are going to happen with respect to these products, and the companies that are producing and trading them are going to have to make some really hard decisions that affect their suppliers and their customers, too,” he added.
The larger question to contend with is whether the two sides are “on a path toward resolution or a path toward continued irritation.” The latter would be an “extraordinarily” detrimental challenge to “one of our largest and most important trading partnerships.”
“When you are encouraging trading partners to reduce their dependence — to reduce their relationship with the United States — what kind of a message is that?” Lamar said. “That’s going to create a new dynamic which is going to start to further erode American competitiveness.”
Med bidrag fra Jean E. Palmieri
